VOLUMEN XXVI
OTOÑO 2018

AT A TIME OF INSURGENT PARTIES, CAN SOCIETIES BELIEVE IN ELECTION POLLS? THE SPANISH EXPERIENCE

 
JOSÉ I. CASTILLO-MANZANO
LOURDES LÓPEZ-VALPUESTA
RAFAEL POZO-BARAJAS

Applied Economics & Management Research Group
Universidad de Sevilla

 

The main purpose of this paper is to use the Spanish case, through an econometric analysis of 226 electoral polls, to explain why polls are making more mistakes in times of great socioeconomic slumps, political instability and the emergence of new political parties. In this context, it is the very instrument with which society tries to reduce the reigning uncertainty that, paradoxically, can ultimately drive uncertainty up. Our results show that the prediction error for the new emerging parties is significantly higher than for the traditional parties and this error is not sensitive to solutions for increasing the reliability of surveys, such as increasing sample size, transparency constantly conducting periodical surveys, the closeness of the approaching election or the survey mode that is used. It can be observed that pollsters do not want to make predictions that vary greatly from the average of the other polls. Finally, editorial bias appears to play a significant role, especially in the case of traditional parties.

 

Key words: election polls, insurgent parties, inaccuracy, Spain.
JEL classification: D7.


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