VOLUMEN XXVI
PRIMAVERA 2018

THE GREAT RECESSION: THE WORST EVER?

 
MÁXIMO CAMACHO
University of Murcia
MARÍA DOLORES GADEA
University of Zaragoza
GABRIEL PÉREZ-QUIRÓS
Bank of Spain and CEPR
 

We develop an international comparative assessment of the Great Recession, in terms of the features that characterize the form of the recession phases, namely length, depth and shape. The potential unobserved heterogeneity in the international recession characteristics is modeled by a finite mixture model. Using Bayesian inference via Gibbs sampling, the model classifies the Great Recession suffered by a large number of countries into different clusters, determining its severity in cross section and time series and dimensions. Our results suggest that the business cycle features of the Great Recession are not different from others in an international perspective. By contrast, we show that the only distinctive feature of the Great Recession was its unprecedented degree of synchronicity.

 

Key words: business cycle, finite mixtures, Great Recession.
JEL classification: C22, E32.


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